Displaying results 1 - 10 of 36
Political Analysis of the Future
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P-1
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Long-Range Forecasting—Roles and Methods; presented at the Conference on Forecasting the Future, Harrogate, England
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P-7
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Information Theory, Cross-Impact Matrices, and Pivotal Events
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P-8
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Comparison of Delphi Forecasting Studies in 1964 and 1969
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P-9
Topic Category
The Current Methods of Futures Research
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P-11
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The Construction of Delphi Statements; published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 3, pp. 65-73, reprint
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P-13
Topic Category
Forecasting: From Conjectural Art Toward Science
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P-14
The difference between futures forecasting and scientific prediction is not one of rigor but of purpose. The scientist's purpose is to test a specific model about the world; anything which threatens that test must be controlled by (a) elimination, (b) experimental manipulation, or ( c) statistical manipulation. The futures researcher's goal, however, is not to test a model but to suggest ( through discovery or logic) a model which encompasses and extends our perception of reality sufficiently well to permit choices or decisions to be made.
Topic Category
Cross-Impact Techniques in Technology Assessment; published in Futures, March 1972, pp. 30-51
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P-15
Topic Category
Some Views on the Use of Expert Judgment
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P-19