Forecasting: From Conjectural Art Toward Science

Author

R. Amara
J. Salancik

Date

Report Number

P-14

The difference between futures forecasting and scientific prediction is not one of rigor but of purpose. The scientist's purpose is to test a specific model about the world; anything which threatens that test must be controlled by (a) elimination, (b) experimental manipulation, or ( c) statistical manipulation. The futures researcher's goal, however, is not to test a model but to suggest ( through discovery or logic) a model which encompasses and extends our perception of reality sufficiently well to permit choices or decisions to be made.