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Displaying results 1 - 10 of 157

Political Analysis of the Future

Publication Date

August 1969

Author

O. Helmer

Report Number

P-1

Topic Category

Governance

Keywords

forecast
probability of occurrence
probability distribution
cross impact matrix

The Non-Proliferation Treaty at the Crossroads

Publication Date

October 1969

Author

A. Kramish

Report Number

P-2

Topic Category

Governance

Keywords

governance
defense

On the Impact of the New Communications Media upon Social Values

Publication Date

March 1969

Author

P. Baran

Report Number

P-3

Topic Category

Emerging Media

Keywords

silicon
biotechnology
semiconductor
calculators

Long-Range Forecasting—Roles and Methods; presented at the Conference on Forecasting the Future, Harrogate, England

Publication Date

May 1970

Author

O. Helmer

Report Number

P-7

Topic Category

Forecasting Methodologies

Keywords

forecast
probability of occurrence
probability distribution
cross impact matrix

Information Theory, Cross-Impact Matrices, and Pivotal Events

Publication Date

April 1970

Author

R. Rochberg

Report Number

P-8

Topic Category

Forecasting Methodologies

Keywords

forecast
probability of occurrence
probability distribution
cross impact matrix

Comparison of Delphi Forecasting Studies in 1964 and 1969

Publication Date

March 1970

Author

R. Ament

Report Number

P-9

Topic Category

Forecasting Methodologies

Keywords

forecast
probability of occurrence
probability distribution
cross impact matrix

On the State-of-the-Art of Computer Develop­ment by the Year 2000; prepared in conjunction with the Working Group on the Social Implica­tions of the Computer of the Commission for the Year 2000

Publication Date

September 1970

Author

P. Baran

Report Number

P-10

Topic Category

Emerging Media

Keywords

silicon
lower cost
biotechnology
semiconductor
calculators
flowing

The Current Methods of Futures Research

Publication Date

August 1971

Author

T. Gordon

Report Number

P-11

Topic Category

Forecasting Methodologies

Keywords

forecast
probability of occurrence
probability distribution
cross impact matrix

The Construction of Delphi Statements; pub­lished in Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 3, pp. 65-73, reprint

Publication Date

April 1971

Author

J. Salancik
W. Wenger
E. Helfer

Report Number

P-13

Topic Category

Forecasting Methodologies

Keywords

forecast
probability of occurrence
probability distribution
cross impact matrix

Forecasting: From Conjectural Art Toward Science

Publication Date

June 1972

Author

R. Amara
J. Salancik

Report Number

P-14

The difference between futures forecasting and scientific prediction is not one of rigor but of purpose. The scientist's purpose is to test a specific model about the world; anything which threatens that test must be controlled by (a) elimination, (b) experimental manipulation, or ( c) statistical manipulation. The futures researcher's goal, however, is not to test a model but to suggest ( through discovery or logic) a model which encompasses and extends our perception of reality sufficiently well to permit choices or decisions to be made.

Topic Category

Forecasting Methodologies

Keywords

forecast
probability of occurrence
probability distribution
cross impact matrix
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Year

Topic category

  • (-) Emerging Media (85)
  • (-) Food (1)
  • (-) Forecasting Methodologies (37)
  • (-) Governance (34)
  • Equitable Futures (48)
  • Health and Wellness (37)
  • Manufacturing Technology (12)
  • Technology (28)
  • Work & Learn (12)

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